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Part 4. Myanmar

Contents

Abbreviations
Acknowledgements
Preface
Fact Sheet - Myanmar Opium Survey 2006
Executive Summary
Opium Poppy Cultivation
Opium Yield and Production
Opium Prices
Household Income From Opium
Addiction
Eradication
Food Security and Coping Strategies
1 Introduction
2 Findings
2.1 Opium Poppy Cultivation
2.2 Yield and Production
2.3 Opium Prices and Cash Income
2.4 Addiction
2.5 Socio-Economic Characteristics of the Survey Population
2.6 Reported Eradication
2.7 Impact of the Opium Ban in Special Region 2 (Wa)
3 Methodology
3.1 Sampling Procedure
3.2 Survey Organization
3.3 Field Operations
3.4 Procedures for the Opium Poppy Area Estimate
3.6 Description of Opium Poppy Cultivation Intensity by Township in Shan State

Abbreviations

CCDAC:                 Central Committee for Drug Abuse Control
GOUM:                  Government of the Union of Myanmar
ICMP:                  Illicit Crop Monitoring Programme
INGO:                  International Non-Governmental Organization
KOWI:                  UNODC Kokang and Wa Initiative
SR:                    Special Region
UNODC:                 United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime
USG:                   Government of the United States of America
Wa Project:            UNODC Wa Project

Acknowledgements

The following organizations and individuals contributed to the implementation of the 2006 Opium Survey in Myanmar and the preparation of the present report:

The implementation of the survey would not have been possible without the support from the local administrations and the dedicated work of the 153 surveyors.

Preface

Opium cultivation in Myanmar continues to decline. The decrease from 130,000 hectares in 1998 to 21,000 hectares in 2006, equivalent to 83 per cent, is encouraging. A remarkable development has been observed in the Wa region, where no opium poppy cultivation was reported in 2006, while the region contributed 30 per cent of the national opium poppy cultivation in 2005.

The trend of continuing decrease in the opium poppy cultivation is positive but it also poses serious challenges. Although, fewer areas are now under cultivation and the balloon effect is still limited, the increased yield in Southern Shan State offset a further decrease in production in 2006.

Weather conditions and improved cultivation practices have contributed to this phenomenon. This is a cause for concern as it may confirm the apprehensions of more sophisticated criminal activity, cross border networking and transfer of new and improved cultivation techniques.

On the other hand, opium poppy cultivation is associated with marginal socio-economic conditions typical for remote and inaccessible mountainous areas where most of the opium poppy is grown. The decrease in opium cultivation, whether caused by drought, disease, opium bans or law enforcement, and consequently the loss of opium income have a serious, immediate and devastating impact on household food security, survival and livelihoods of the poor and marginalized opium poppy-farming families. Some of the coping strategies former opium poppy farmers use to make up for the loss of opium income, such as selling assets and livestock, taking loans and drop out of school, are an alarming signal of the growing misery, deprivation and vulnerability of these families. Men, women and children are entering a downward spiral of pauperization, un- and underemployment, malnutrition, disease and poor health status.

The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime emphasizes the urgent need to provide for basic human needs and alternative means of livelihoods for those affected by opium reduction through coordinated and comprehensive interventions and programmes. The fight against drugs is also a fight against poverty. The international community should harbour no doubts about it.

Today, efforts to reduce opium poppy cultivation face a renewed but predictable challenge in Myanmar. Higher opium prices in 2006 resulted in a 49 per cent increase in farmers' incomes, a development that makes opium producing farmers more dependent on opium poppy cultivation, and thus makes it more difficult for them to abandon it.

The Government and its development assistance partners have to ensure that food security and alternative livelihood programmes are strengthened and expanded to support those farmers who decided to abandon opium poppy cultivation. It is necessary to create an appropriate environment to encourage those who have not yet made this decision in combination with measures to reduce and eradicate opium cultivation in a sustainable way. Failing to do so may lead to a humanitarian disaster and human misery in Myanmar.

Shariq Bin Raza
Representative
UNODC Myanmar

Fact Sheet - Myanmar Opium Survey 2006

1 In 2006, an additional 4 townships in Kachin State and 2 in Kayah State were included into the survey.
2 Source: CCDAC.
3 For 2005: 12 months average; for 2006: price at harvest time.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The 2006 Opium Survey in Myanmar was conducted jointly by the Government of the Union of Myanmar (GOUM) and the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). An extensive survey, combining the use of satellite images and ground verification, was conducted in Shan State where most of the opium poppy cultivation takes place. A rapid ground survey was conducted in Special Region 2 (Wa) to certify its opium free status. Limited ground surveys were also conducted in townships of Kachin and Kayah States to assess the level of cultivation in these areas and monitor possible displacement of opium poppy cultivation.

Opium poppy cultivation

In 2006, the total area under opium poppy cultivation in Myanmar was estimated at 21,500 hectares, representing a decrease of 34% compared to 2005 (32,800 hectares). The largest cultivation areas were found in South Shan where 72% of the national cultivation took place. 21% was cultivated in East Shan State. In North Shan State cultivation continued to decrease and reached a negligible level. In Kayah State, which was surveyed for first time this year, only a few hectares could be found. In 2006, there was also some limited cultivation in Kachin accounting for 5% of the total opium poppy cultivation in Myanmar. The most remarkable change was recorded in Special Region 2 (Wa), where there was no opium poppy cultivation this year, while in 2005 this region represented 30% of the national opium poppy cultivation.

Opium poppy cultivation in Myanmar has been decreasing continuously over the last years. Since 1998, the year of the United Nations Special Session on Drugs, the area under opium poppy decreased by 83% from 130,000 ha to 21,500 ha. Since 2002, the year of the first joint GoUM /UNODC survey, opium poppy cultivation fell by 73%.

Figure 14: Opium poppy cultivation (hectares), 1993 - 2006

[twice the size]

Opium yield and production

The weighted national average opium yield for 2006 was estimated at 14.6 kg/ha (against 9.5 kg/ha in 2005). Yields ranged from only 8.9 kg/ha in East Shan State over 16.6 kg/ha in South Shan State up to 21.4 kg/ha on the best irrigated fields in Kachin State. In general, weather conditions were favourable for opium production (sufficient and timely rainfall). In addition, irrigation of opium poppy fields and multistage cropping contributed to yield increases. The considerable yield increase in 2006 offset the decrease in the cultivation area. In 2006, the potential production of opium remained with 315 metric tons almost at the level of 2005 (312 metric tons). The survey results show that the largest increase in production took place in South Shan State. Overall opium production in Myanmar has decreased by 75% since 1998 but the downward trend of recent years has come to a halt due to the production increases in East and South Shan State in 2006.

Figure 15: Opium production in Myanmar (metric tons), 1993 - 2006

[twice the size]

Opium prices

The average farm-gate price of opium at harvest time was estimated at 230 US$/kg. This represents an increase of 22% compared to the average price reported by farmers for the year 2005. Regional price differences were pronounced with the highest prices in Kachin and North Shan State and the lowest prices in East and South Shan State. The highest opium price increases compared to last year could be observed in North Shan and Kachin State whereas in South Shan and East Shan States price increases were moderate. The price differences reflect well the scarcity or availability of opium in different regions as well as the fragmentation of the opium market.

Household income from opium

The average annual cash income of an opium poppy cultivating household was estimated at US$437. The average annual income of non-opium poppy cultivating household was estimated at US$318, which is, unlike in previous years, lower than growing households. This year, a much smaller number of households (-34%) produced the same amount of opium (315 mt) due to higher yields and sold it for a much higher price (+23%) compared to 2005. As a consequence, the total value of the national opium production, which increased considerably (+25%), was distributed among fewer households. This concentration led to an unusually high average household income in opium poppy growing villages, which increased by 50% compared to last year. The 2006 survey results confirm that the average income of households in villages that never grew opium poppy is higher than in villages, which stopped opium poppy cultivation. The findings also show that households in villages, which gave up opium poppy cultivation, could find no adequate way of substituting the lost income from opium. They simply got poorer, and they will need assistance to cope with this difficult situation.

Addiction

In the Shan State (excluding Special Region 2 Wa), opium addiction affected 0.60% of the adult population in 2006. Within the survey area the average level of addiction was 2.16% in villages with opium poppy cultivation. This rate is significantly higher than in villages where opium is not cultivated, which have an addiction rate of just 0.25%. Opium addiction in Kayah state is close to nil whereas it is comparatively high in Kachin (0.72%). As a comparison, opium addiction recorded in Special Region 2 (Wa) last year was 0.83%. ATS addiction was reported mainly from East Shan State, while heroin addiction prevailed in Kachin and North Shan State.

Eradication

Official reports from the Myanmar Government indicate that 3,970 ha of opium poppy were eradicated in 2006, which is similar to last year. The level of eradication has however increased by 29% in entire Shan State and more specifically by 163% in South Shan State reflecting an increase in government efforts to control opium poppy cultivation in this State. Eradication was less intense in Kachin State this year. However, despite a 50 % decrease in the area eradicated, cultivation remained at a low level.

Food security and coping strategies

The survey showed that villages reporting opium poppy cultivation have a significantly lower food security compared to opium poppy-free villages. Villages with access to paddy land tend to cultivate less opium poppy since they can achieve a high level of food security with rice cultivation. Villages growing opium poppy show a significantly higher intensity of shifting cultivation, both in terms of acreage of forest cut and duration of fallow periods compared to non- growing villages. The most common coping strategy for farmers who have stopped opium poppy cultivation is to grow more rice and maize and sell livestock. No migration was reported in the places where opium cultivation has been abandoned.

Map 9: Opium poppy cultivation in Kachin, Kayah, and Shan States, Myanmar, 2006

[twice the size] Source: Government of Myanmar - National monitoring system supported by UNODC The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

1 Introduction

This report presents the results of the annual opium survey in Myanmar, conducted for the fifth consecutive year by the Central Committee for Drug Abuse Control (CCDAC) of Myanmar, with the support and participation of UNODC. Within the framework of its Illicit Crop Monitoring Programme (ICMP), UNODC has collected statistical information on illicit crop cultivation Myanmar since 2001. ICMP works with Governments to increase their capacity to monitor illicit crops and supports the international community in monitoring the extent and evolution of illicit crops in the context of the elimination strategy adopted by United Nations General Assembly Special Session on Drugs in June 1998. The survey methodology combines satellite imagery with a ground survey to determine the extent of opium poppy cultivation in the country and to collect socio-economic data at the village level. Opium poppy has been grown in Southeast Asia as a medicinal and cash crop for centuries. Some 150 years ago, cultivation of the crop was commercialized in what was then known as Burma. For the past 50 years, the farm-gate buyers of opium have been Chinese merchants connected with international groups operating from China and Thailand. Through collection of taxes and protection money, various ethnic insurgent groups have used proceeds from onward sales of raw opium and processed heroin to finance their activities. Opium poppy cultivation has remained village-based, widely dispersed and very "low tech". The agricultural economy of opium­growing regions of Myanmar is based on a traditional opium poppy-maize-rice cropping system. Surplus opium, which is not needed for medicinal purposes or consumed by addicts in the own household, is sold to alleviate food shortages, as most households are not food self-sufficient.

Irrigated lowland opium poppy field interspersed with garlic in Hsihseng township, South Shan State [twice the size]

In the 1980s, Myanmar was the world's largest producer of illicit opium, with an average annual production of about 700 metric tons of opium between 1981 and 1987. Opium production in Myanmar continued to increase until 1996, reaching annual production levels of some 1,600 metric tons. However, Afghanistan replaced Myanmar as the world's largest producer of opium in 1991, primarily due to its higher opium yield per hectare. The area under cultivation remained larger in Myanmar than in Afghanistan until 2003.

The surrender of the notorious drug trafficker Khun Sa, leader of the Mong Tai Army, in 1996 resulted in the collapse of armed resistance movements and led to the negotiation of a series of truce agreements with most break-away factions. This paved the way for control of opium poppy-growing regions and allowed the implementation of measures to reduce opium poppy cultivation.

In 1999, the Government of Myanmar and local authorities in areas cultivating opium poppy decided to engage in a 15-year plan to eliminate the illicit crop by the year 2014. Since then, there has been a considerable decrease in the area under cultivation and a strong decline in potential opium production in Myanmar. Opium poppy has been confined almost entirely to the Shan State with a few pockets of cultivation in other states. The Wa region in Shan State, which has been playing a major role in opium production in the past, declared a ban on opium cultivation in June 2005. No significant opium poppy production has been observed in Kokang and in Special Region 4 since 2003.

Annual opium surveys remain essential to assess the extent of opium poppy cultivation within the country, shifts in cultivation and are useful tools in gauging the effectiveness of opium bans and their implications for the local communities. The present survey examines how farmers are coping with change in the areas affected by the opium ban. Such information is key in developing strategies to sustain the transition from an illicit economy to a licit economy.

2 Findings

2.1 Opium poppy cultivation

In previous years, Myanmar Opium Surveys have covered three regions of Shan State (North, East, and South Shan) and Special Region 2 of the Wa region. This year, as an opium ban was enforced in the Special Region 2 (Wa), the survey team confirmed the implementation of the opium-ban by conducting rapid assessment surveys in this area. Further, the Myanmar Opium Survey 2006 has extended its remit to include Kayah State and Kachin State areas as well, to monitor possible displacement of opium poppy cultivation.

The total area under opium poppy cultivation in Myanmar was estimated at 21,500 ha in 2006.

This corresponds to a reduction of 34% from the 32,800 ha in 2005 and indicates a continuation of the decrease in cultivation that has been observed during the last 5 years.

The overwhelming majority of the total opium poppy cultivation in Myanmar took place in South Shan (72%) and East Shan State (21%). In North Shan State the level of opium poppy cultivation continued to decrease and was almost negligible. Only a few pockets of opium poppy cultivation were found in Kachin, and cultivation was close to nil in Kayah State. The expectation that opium poppy cultivation could be displaced from Wa into Kayah was not confirmed by the survey.

Figure 16: Opium poppy cultivation in Myanmar (ha), 1990 - 2006

[twice the size]

Opium poppy plantation in Ei-ngan valley in Pekhon township, South Shan State [twice the size]

Figure 17: Opium poppy cultivation in the Shan State (ha), 2003 - 2006

[twice the size]

The most remarkable decrease in opium poppy cultivation was observed in Special Region 2 (Wa) where no opium poppy cultivation was found in 2006. In North Shan State, opium poppy cultivation continued to decrease and became negligible with only a few pockets left in Namkhan and Manton areas. In East Shan State, cultivation increased by 15% and in South Shan State even more significantly by 39%.

Opium poppy field in Tanai township, Kachin State [twice the size]

Map 10: Three dimensional view of opium poppy fields on a satellite image acquired in January 2006

[twice the size]

Villages and farmers involved in opium poppy cultivation

Base on an estimated average area under cultivation of 0.17 ha per household and a total cultivation of 21,500 ha, an estimated 126,500 households were involved in opium poppy cultivation in Myanmar in 2006. The number of opium poppy cultivating households decreased by 54,500 compared to 2005. This decrease is entirely due to the opium ban in Special Region 2 (Wa) where 76,000 households abandoned opium cultivation after the ban in 2005. The ground survey revealed that opium cultivation took place in 8% of all villages in Shan states with the highest concentrations found in East Shan State (14%) and South Shan State (10%). A high concentration of villages cultivating was also found in two townships out of four surveyed in Kachin State (30% of all villages). Since not all townships were surveyed in Kachin this figure is only indicative for those 2 townships. In Kayah and North Shan State the percentage of villages cultivating opium poppy is very low (2%).

Figure 18: Regional distribution of villages growing opium poppy in Kachin, Kayah and Shan States, 2006

[twice the size]

Irrigated opium poppy field inter-cropped with faba beans [twice the size]

Cultivation practices in Shan State Opium poppy cultivation traditionally takes place between October and February in Shan State but can be extended up to April in higher altitudes. A similar situation has been found at higher latitudes in Kachin State where the climate is cooler. The survey found that farmers are changing their cultivation practices, possibly to counter the effects of eradication activities. This is particularly true in South Shan State as described below.

Figure 19: Opium poppy crop calendar in Shan State

[twice the size]

Early cultivation during the monsoon season It has been a common view that cultivating opium poppy during the monsoon season is impossible. The underlying rationale is that, at the time of sowing, opium poppy seeds may easily be dislodged by rainwater, and that rain at harvest time makes opium gum collection extremely difficult.

However, during the rainy season, there are some favourable conditions, which promote the growth of opium poppy. Principal conditions to facilitate opium cultivation are rainwater irrigation as well as a warm and humid climate. Furthermore, the earlier cultivation takes place, the earlier the crop can be harvested.

With regard to the collection of opium gum in rainy conditions, an officer from the Land Records and Survey Department of Mongnea indicated that some farmers have been attempting to cap the lanced capsules with small plastic bags to avoid the impact of rain. Similar practices have been observed by opium survey teams in Thailand in recent years.

The monsoon opium poppy is typically cultivated on hillsides, where the field benefits from full exposure to sunlight. Bushes or large rocks usually demarcating the top of the hillside fields and help breaking the erosive force of rainwater flowing downhill. To restrict and decelerate the rapid flow of rainwater through the field, farmers dig drainage canals along the field's borders and across its centre, thus allowing the opium poppy seedlings to grow with limited environmental disturbance.

Figure 20: Monsoon opium poppy field on hillside

[twice the size]

In order to avoid opium poppy eradication, attempts are made to cultivate the crop as early as possible, in June or July, to ensure that the opium gum can be harvested in September-October, prior to the commencement of eradication activities. The flowers of the monsoon crops are opening late in the monsoon and the capsules are fully developed in the first week of September, after which it is possible to start the gum collection process.

The practice of multistage cropping

Multistage cropping is often practised in opium poppy fields where significant eradication campaigns have taken place. The following photos show examples of multi-cropping. Opium poppy seeds are broadcasted two times in the same field with an interval of one or two months.

Hence, plants of two different sizes are growing in the same field at the same time.

Even if the plants from the first broadcast are eradicated, the plants from second sowing have a change of surviving and yield a successful harvest, thus compensating for the loss. The practice of multistage-cropping has been widely applied throughout South Shan State. Farmers can expect a good harvest from the same field since past experiences have shown that eradication measures are not conducted on the same area of land twice. Therefore, multistage cropping helps farmers to cope with losses caused by eradication campaigns.

Moreover, farmers use staggered planting - broadcasting opium poppy seeds on different fields at the different times - to spread the harvest over a longer period. Since the opium poppy plants are growing at different stages, at the time of gum collection in the first field, the second fields will not yet be at flowering stage. Therefore labour needs are better distributed.

Ad-hoc action for rapid replacement with new plants Opium poppy farmers further employ another tactic to cope with the effects of eradication.

Immediately following the eradication of an opium poppy field, iodized salt (normal table salt - NaCl2 ­ treated with iodine) is spread over the field to accelerate the rotting of plant residues.

Three to five days later, new opium poppy seeds can be sown in the field, together with urea fertilizers. This practice promotes vigorous plant growth, due to the presence of both the urea fertilizer and organic fertilizers from plant residues, and enhances early maturion of the crops. It has been used in areas where the soil is moist, most typically in Pinlaung and Hopong. It should be noted that some remnants of the eradicated plants remain and may also continue to grow under these conditions.

Example of opium poppy cultivation practice on mountains

In the East Shan State, most opium poppy farmers sow their crop seed in mid-September.

Opium poppy fields at different stages of growth covering the Maenai Range in Hopong township, South Shan State [twice the size]

However, further heavy rain between the end of September and the beginning of October as well as in the last week of December, forced some farmers to sow seeds on as many as three separate occasions. As a result, the opium poppy crops occupying these fields were at different stages of development (between 7 and 15 cm during the survey visit) and many died well in advance of the field being ready for harvest.

In the Hopong and Hsihseng areas of South Shan, farmers are practicing a systematic multiple cropping technique. Farmers traditionally sow opium poppy seeds between August and October, and harvest opium between November and January. Some fields are then used to cultivate a second crop during December and January. A second crop on lowland fields was observed in January 2006 in Narthan, Narkhite, Sawsar and Loiput villages. At the same time, some fields were being harvested on mountain slopes. In some places of the Loimaw range, opium poppy fields had replaced cheroot-leaf plantations.

Opium poppy plants interspersed with cheroot-leaf trees [twice the size]

Example of opium poppy cultivation practices on lowlands

Pinlaung farmers habitually cultivated the first opium poppy crop in June, July, August and September. Harvesting would then take place between September and December and they could then cultivate a second crop between October and December, on the more remote hillsides of the mountain ranges. However, in 2005, some opium poppy fields were discovered and eradicated in the month of May, which suggests the possibility for a third crop. The possibility of a third crop was also discussed with a farmer in Loiput village who asserted that, as long as the climatic conditions remained favourable and water was available for irrigation, he would grow a third crop.

In Pinlaung and Pekhon, alternative crops such as lowland paddy, highland paddy, corn, potato and pigeon pea are cultivated in the monsoon season. In the winter season, garlic, mustard, niger and wheat are cultivated. In particular, garlic cultivation in Pekhon is extensive, whereas potato is a key produce of Pinlaung. Moreover, pigeon pea has recently been introduced to the region, however, due to its lengthy growth period it contributes only minimally to farmers' cultivation of staple food crops. Where pigeon pea is cultivated, it is interspersed with other crops.

During a monitoring trip to Hsihseng Township in the second week of January 2006 several second crop opium poppy fields in lowland were found in the villages of Narthan, Narkhite, Sawsar and Loiput. At that time, the first crop, possibly sown in August and September, was still being harvested on mountain slopes as well as in some plain lowland fields. Usually, farmers prepare seedbeds in lowland fields where water is available for irrigation. Zigzag irrigation canals are then dug around the seedbeds and the opium poppy seeds are sown, together with mustard, garlic and faba bean. The seeds are covered with straw to minimize moisture loss. The garlic seedlings are the first to sprout and emerge over the straw, while the opium poppy seedlings continue to grow underneath the straw. The opium poppy seedlings, therefore, are not visible at this stage and fields used for their cultivation are fully camouflaged. After harvesting the garlic, the field is primarily covered with opium poppy.

Second crop opium poppy under straw cover [twice the size]

Second crop opium poppy after removal of straw cover in an irrigated field, Hsihseng township, South Shan State [twice the size]

A similar situation was found in Narthan and Sawsar, where opium poppy plants were found under straw cover, possibly planted in the second week of December. In Narthan, opium crops were even found being cultivated under cheroot-leaf trees as to limit the chances of detection. The plants had been adequately applied with farmyard manure and ash.

2.2 Yield and production

Capsule measurement in an opium poppy field during the yield survey [twice the size]

The average national opium yield was estimated at 11.3 kg/ha (simple average), based on capsule measurement in 181 fields. This is a 33% increase compared to last year. This increase can mainly be attributed to a very strong increase in opium yield in South Shan State with an average of 16.6 kg/ha. The national yield weighted by cultivation area is 14.6 kg/ha. In South Shan, on top of timely and additional rainfall during the growing of the opium poppy plants, farmers have also improved opium cultivation practices by introducing better irrigation, multistage cropping and application of fertilizer when available. This has resulted in a 24% opium yield increase in this region compared to last year's 13.4 kg/ha.

In regions where no formal yield measurements were taken or too few field found in Kayah and North Shan States, the average national yield was used to calculate the potential opium production.

This year's yield survey was not designed to include off-season opium poppy crops. While off- season cultivation of opium poppy was a marginal phenomenon this year, this practice may spread and should definitely be taken into consideration for next year's yield survey.

In 2006, 315 metric tons of opium were potentially produced in Myanmar, which is a 1% increase compared to last year's estimate of 312 metric tons. The declining production trend observed since 2001 has stopped in spite of a total elimination of opium production in Special Region 2 (Wa), which represented 30% of national opium production in 2005. This is due to a very strong increase in cultivation in South Shan State, which has now by far the largest area under cultivation.

Combined with the highest yields in the country, this region generates the bulk of Myanmar's total production (82%).

Figure 21: Potential opium production (metric tons), 1993 - 2006

[twice the size]

Map 11: Location of opium yield measurements in Kachin and Shan States, Myanmar 2006

[twice the size] Source: Government of Myanmar - National monitoring system supported by UNODC The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

2.3 Opium prices and cash income

In 2006, the average farm-gate price of opium weighted by the estimated area under cultivation was US$230, and increase of 22% with respect to 2005 (US$187). Regional average farm-gate prices for the studied regions are: South Shan, US$214, East Shan, US$228, Kachin, US$358 and North Shan, US$436. The high price observed in North Shan State is probably due to the fact that opium bans have been introduced in more and more areas over the last years, leading to a scarcity of opium. The average opium price per region for 2005 was updated with information given by farmers in early 2006. This revised price is more accurate than prices reported in the 2005 survey, which only covered the first months of 2005.

Without exception, opium prices increased in all regions compared to last year. The increase was more pronounced in villages, which did not cultivate opium poppy in 2006. Prices increased drastically in those villages without opium poppy cultivation, located in regions where the area under opium poppy cultivation decreased, such as Kachin and North Shan. Regional price differences were also more distinct in 2006 compared to the year before. In 2005, the highest regional average price (US$366 in Kachin) was only about two times (2.2) higher than the lowest average (US$169 in South Shan). This year, the highest average price, found again in Kachin (US$715), was 3.4 times the lowest prices, which came again from South Shan (US$210). In general, the opium prices reflect to a large extend the local availability of opium rather than a national price level, which seems to indicate a fragmentation of the opium market.

Opium prices at Mong Pawk market in Special Region 2 (Wa) were higher compared to those in East Shan and South Shan State, which reflects the impact of the opium ban in this region. Opium sold in 2006 in the Wa region is old opium harvested in 2005 before the ban started in June 2005.

This opium is sold to local addicts but also trafficked to other areas.

Figure 22: Average farm gate price of opium (US$/kg), 2005 - 2006

[twice the size]

Figure 23: Opium prices at Mong Pawk market (US$/kg), 1999 - 2006

[twice the size]

Household cash income

In 2006, the average annual cash income of an opium producing household was estimated at US$437. The average annual cash income of non-opium cultivating households was estimated at US$318, which is lower than the cash income of opium poppy growing households.

In past years, survey results showed that villages in opium poppy growing areas had a lower average household income compared to villages in opium poppy-free areas. This year's analysis of the survey data shows a more complex pattern. Besides the two groups of households, those in opium poppy growing areas and those in opium poppy-free areas, there is a third group of households living in those villages that have abandoned opium poppy cultivation in the more or less recent past. Within this third group, some households still have opium stocks from previous harvest, and they sell them, notwithstanding the fact that they did not cultivate opium poppy in the most recent growing season.

Lancing of opium poppy capsules [twice the size]

This year, a much smaller number of households (-34%) produced the same amount of opium as in 2005 (315 mt), due to higher yields, and sold it for a much higher price (+23%). As a consequence, the total value of the national opium production, which increased considerably (+25%), was distributed among fewer households. This concentration led to an unusually high average household income in opium poppy growing villages, which increased by 50% compared to last year. A reduced number of opium cultivators has therefore received a higher household income compared to households in opium poppy-free villages, and a much higher income than households in villages that gave up opium poppy cultivation.

This atypical income disparity could be a one-time effect caused by a unique combination of factors this year. There is also a danger that the windfall gains of opium poppy growing households this year could lead to a resumption of opium poppy cultivation among the poorest households, which could not identify alternative sources of income.

The 2006 survey results confirm in general that the average income of households in villages that never grew opium poppy is higher than in villages, which used to grow opium poppy. The findings also show that households in villages, which gave up opium poppy cultivation, could find no adequate way of substituting the lost income from opium. They simply got poorer.

Figure 24: Average household income (US$/year), 2005

[twice the size]

Figure 25: Average household income in non-opium poppy growing villages (US$/year)

[twice the size]

An analysis of the different sources of household income, including opium growing as well as non-opium growing households, shows that opium ranks rather low. Agricultural products such as rice and maize as well as livestock and poultry are among the most important sources of income in all surveyed villages. In East Shan State, opium sales ranked among the top five sources of income, and in South Shan just after wages, which are often obtained from working on opium poppy fields in this region. Everywhere else, opium sales are not considered anymore a significant source of livelihood. These results should be interpreted with caution, as there might be a reluctance of respondents to report income from opium in the context of the Government's efforts to curb it.

Loans

In East Shan and Kachin States, most of the loans were taken by farmers who cultivate opium poppy, whereas in Kayah and North Shan State, where opium cultivation is negligible, the corresponding proportion of loans was very low. In South Shan State where opium poppy cultivation is high a fewer percentage of all households took loans, and about half of them were also cultivating opium poppy. This indicates that farmers in South Shan are less dependant on loans in general. Between one fourth and one third of all households in opium poppy growing as well as in non-growing villages had outstanding loans, with an significantly higher proportion of households with outstanding loans in growing villages.

Figure 26: Households with outstanding loans from 2005

[twice the size]

More households in opium-growing villages compared to non-growing intended to take a loan in 2006. Both findings indicate that poverty is the driving force behind opium poppy cultivation.

However, in South Shan State, only 23% of households in opium growing villages intended to take a loan in 2006 compared to 39% in non-growing villages. This exception to the general trend could be due to the fact that farmers received an unusually high income from opium this year.

Figure 27: Households planning to take a loan in 2006

[twice the size]

Opium poppy farmer family [twice the size]

2.4 Addiction

Data on opium addiction, defined as daily use, with a breakdown by gender (for population aged 15 years and above) were collected during interviews with the headmen in the surveyed villages.

The addicts themselves were not interviewed and no data on their level of consumption was collected.

In villages in Shan State where opium cultivation took place in 2006 the average level of addiction was 2.16% and thus significantly higher than in non-growing villages where the average of opium addiction was reported to be only 0.25%. Overall opium addiction rate in Shan State was 0.60% (excluding Wa) and remains almost the same as last year when it was 0.57% (including Wa).

The survey this year covered also some new areas in Kachin and Kayah. No addicts were identified in Kayah where opium cultivation can be found in only a small number of villages. The level of opium addiction found in Kachin was the second highest of all regions with a prevalence rate of 0.72%. All these results should be interpreted with caution, as there might be a reluctance of respondents to report opium addiction in the context of the Government's effort to curb it.

The results for opium addiction, which was surveyed for the first time this year in Kachin, confirm last year's data from the Shan State where it was found to be mainly a male phenomenon (1.29% men compared to 0.17% women).

Heroin and amphetamine-type stimulants (ATS) addiction in Shan and Kachin States remains very low among the surveyed population, which are all living in rural areas. Both types of abuse are mainly an urban phenomenon in Myanmar. In the surveyed areas, heroin and ATS prevalence rates are at the same level at 0.07%. Heroin abuse is higher in Kachin and North Shan State whereas ATS abuse is higher in East Shan State.

2.5 Socio-economic characteristics of the survey population

The survey aimed at identifying relevant characteristics of opium growing households, including reasons for growing opium poppy and coping strategies when households abandon opium poppy cultivation. It also looked at issues, which could be linked to continuing or stopping opium cultivation, such as shifting cultivation practices and migration.

Food security

There is a significant difference in food security between households in villages growing opium poppy and those in non-growing villages. Generally, food security is considerably higher in villages that do not cultivate opium poppy. This finding stresses the link between opium poppy cultivation and a low food security.

In East Shan State, 79% of households in non-growing villages reported to be food secure for 12 months as opposed to only 52% in growing villages. In North Shan, a vast majority (65%) of non- growing households is food secure for the entire year contrasting with only 11% for households in opium poppy-growing villages.

In Kachin State, 48% of households in non-growing villages have enough food for the year, whereas in opium-growing villages, only 14% of the households possess enough food for the year.

In Kayah, 29% of the households in non-growing villages have enough food for the year, while in villages growing opium poppy, only 20% possess enough food for the year.

In South Shan State, food sufficiency situation is similar in both opium poppy-growing and non- growing villages (54% and 53%). But the proportion of households with a rice deficit of 12 months is 9% in growing villages compared to 3% in non-growing villages.

Figure 28: Percentage of households with food deficit in opium poppy growing and non-growing villages, 2006

[twice the size]

Coping strategies after stopping opium cultivation

In most villages that stopped opium poppy cultivation, households expanded their agricultural activities by growing more maize, more rice and other licit crops to compensate for the lost income from opium. Wage labour and sale of livestock also played an important role. Strategies such as selling assets, taking children out of school, or taking loans, could lead to a deterioration of the situation of individual households and a long-term erosion of the human and economic households assets. It is worth noting that almost none of the surveyed villages turned to the rice bank[4] to overcome their deficits.

4 Rice Banks are village committees who, on behalf of member farmers, receive paddy or seeds from farmers and borrow it to other needy farmers at an appropriate interest rate. The collected interests are used as the village fund.

Figure 29: Coping strategies in villages that stopped opium poppy cultivation in Shan State

[twice the size]

Paddy land availibility

Access to paddy land is a good indicator for a high food security as irrigated lowland rice gives much higher yields compared to unirrigated upland rice. In general, less than half of the households in the surveyed villages own paddy land, and this percentage is even lower in opium poppy growing villages.

Figure 30: Proportion of villages increasing the amount of paddy by region

[twice the size]

Some villages were able to increase the area of lowland paddy, which can in turn improve their food security. The highest rates were found in East Shan State and Kachin. The results support the findings of the food security analysis where it was found that East Shan State has the highest proportion of households with enough food (in East Shan State, 8 out of 10 households have enough food in the non-growing villages). Non-growing villages also have a much higher land holding of paddy per household compared to opium-growing villages. This is another possible reason why non-growers are more food secure.

Shifting Cultivation

Opium poppy growing households rely much more on shifting cultivation than non-growing households. This is due to the fact that opium poppy is cultivated on the hillsides where the climatic conditions are favourable. The slopes are usually covered by forest and scrubs, which farmers clear for opium poppy fields.

In mountainous regions such as East Shan and Kachin, the proportion of households practicing shifting cultivation in opium poppy-growing villages was double or even triple the proportion in non-growing villages. In South Shan State and North Shan State the difference is less pronounced.

In Kayah, opium poppy cultivation is negligible but the practice of shifting cultivation is nevertheless widespread.

Figure 31: Percentage of households practising shifting cultivation

[twice the size]

The average number of years fields are cultivated before being fallow is about two. No significant difference was found between villages growing and those not growing opium poppy. The shortest average duration of cultivation was found in villages in Kachin with 1.4 years and the longest in South Shan State with 2.4 years.

Differences between opium poppy growing and non-growing villages are more pronounced for the duration of the average fallow period. The number of fallow years is higher in growing villages. In non-growing villages there is a higher pressure on the land to grow rice each year or every two years expect in Kachin where fields are left more than five years. This fast rotation on highland fields could affect crop productivity and lead to soil erosion.

Figure 32: Average number of years of cultivation before fallow

[twice the size]

Figure 33: Average number of fallow years

[twice the size]

Migration

Permanent out-migration in the sample is low (1% of the surveyed population) and comparable to last year. The highest migration rate was reported from East Shan State with 1.6% and the lowest from Kayah with only 0.7%. There was no report of permanent out-migration in the Wa region following the opium ban in June 2005. The out-migration rate in opium poppy growing villages in East and North Shan State is three times higher than in non-growing villages. In opium poppy growing villages poverty is often cited as the main reason for households to move. Religion was also mentioned as a reason for migration as well as relocation organised by local authorities.

Figure 34: Reasons for leaving the village

[twice the size]

Migration in poppy growing villages in the surveyed area is directly related to poverty: 43 % of farmers migrated because of lack of food and/or lack of income. The second reason for leaving is schooling, 22%.

In non-opium poppy growing villages, schooling (38%) was a main reason followed by poverty (32%) for leaving the village.

2.6 Reported eradication

According to government reports, eradication took place on 3,970 hectares during 2005-2006 season, an increase of only 1.6% over the 3,907 hectares eradicated in 2004 - 2005 season.[5] In Shan State, eradication took place mainly in South Shan State where it has increased by 164% compared to last year, and included some `voluntary' abandonment of opium poppy cultivation. In Kachin State, eradication was 50% of the 2005 level. In Kayah State, where cultivation was negligible, no eradication was reported in 2006. Only 9 ha were eradicated in Mandalay and less than 1 ha in Sagaing Division in 2006, and both eradication events took place close to the border with Kachin and Shan State.

5 This opium survey was not designed to monitor or validate the results of the eradication campaigns carried out by the Government.

Eradication [twice the size]

Under the cease-fire agreements, ethnic groups have a certain degree of autonomy and self- governance. In the main opium poppy cultivation areas, the government was able to assert to some degree of control, and local authorities agreed to phase out opium poppy cultivation. However, in most of these areas there are no alternative sources of income and local authorities have been reluctant to increase eradication activities, since no aid is yet in place to support farmers who abandon opium poppy cultivation.

Map 12: The 15-years opium poppy elimination plan in Myanmar

[twice the size]

2.7 Impact of the opium ban in Special Region 2 (Wa)

In 2005, 94% of opium cultivation took place in Shan State, of which 42%, or 39.5% of the national cultivation, took place in Wa Special Region 2. These figures confirmed the area's status as major producer of opium in the country up to June 2005, when the Wa authorities declared a total ban on opium cultivation.

A farmers' intention survey was conducted by ICMP/UNODC in October 2005, prior to the annual opium survey, to assess the impact of the ban on opium farmers. The two datasets together provide a good overview of the situation farmers are facing in Wa.

• 91% of the villages surveyed reported to have cultivated opium poppy in the past and 100% reported they would abandon opium poppy cultivation this year. In fact, not a single opium poppy field was found at the time of the survey and a following rapid assessment in January and February 2006.
• It was estimated that the ban resulted in the cessation of opium poppy cultivation on 12,960 ha of land. This represents a reduction of 96 metric tons of opium (31% of Myanmar's total production in 2005), valued at US$17,9 million.
• Surveyed farmers indicated that opium poppy was seven times more profitable than highland rice and two times more profitable than lowland rice.
• Farmers expected that without opium, household income would decline to 31% of that generated in 2005 as the revenue from opium, formerly 72% of the annual total would be lost. Loss of income from opium can only be partially be replaced by income from other crops.
• All villages surveyed reported that the production of food for self-consumption would only be sufficient for 6 months of the year, after which a period severe food shortages would be experienced if no external assistance was made available.
• 33% of the farmers reported they were in debt, 95% of them indicted that they would continue to be in debt in 2006 and that it would be very difficult for them to generate the income necessary to repay the amount owed. Farmers also reported that they did not expect to obtain further extensions on the loans made in 2006.
• With no additional income for investment, the diversification of farms will not be possible.
• In past years, farmers facing food shortages had the possibility of generating extra income by working as casual labourers in the region's opium fields. With no opium cultivation following the ban, this is no longer an option and such wages will not be available.
• None of the farmers interviewed believe they would migrate from the Wa region to other areas, however, if a balloon effect of opium cultivation takes place in other parts of Shan and Kachin States, a significant migratory wave could occur as desperate communities look for work, income and food. The survey results indicate this has not happened so far.
• Although farmers have expressed their intention to adopt alternative income strategies, they are hardly in a position to do so without the income necessary for new investment.
• The assistance currently provided by UN agencies and NGOs is significant, but remains insufficient in the face of the magnitude of vulnerability of the affected population. The World Food Programme estimates the number of food insecure people at 230,000, out of which it could support only 100,000 or 42%.

Former opium poppy farmer, Wa region [twice the size]

It can therefore be assumed that the vast majority of families in the region will be affected by food insecurity and debt as no adequate alternative livelihood strategies are yet available.

3 Methodology

This is the fifth year the Central Committee for Drug Abuse Control (CCDAC) of the Union of Myanmar collaborate with the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime to implement the annual Myanmar Opium Survey.

The pattern of opium poppy cultivation is rapidly changing in Myanmar: Some areas are getting opium free when others are increasing their level of cultivation. In South Shan State the opium poppy crop calendar is changing and new patterns such as multi-cropping emerge. Opium fields generally move further away from the villages and, in certain regions, are being subject to eradication activities. In addition, cultivation is possibly shifting to areas once considered opium poppy free or climatically less favourable. In 2006, all of these considerations, combined with reduced accessibility and the expected change in cropping pattern, influenced the survey methodology and the sampling procedures for the estimation of the planted area and other socio- economic indicators.

Considerable efforts have been made over the last years to improve on a number of methodological details and to adapt to the evolving conditions of cultivation. This survey integrated the ground data collection component, and combined the use of satellite remote sensing with field surveys and interviews.

The 2006 opium poppy survey is composed of three parallel components:

1. A planted area estimation survey throughout three regions of the Shan State (North, South, East) and Kayah State and Kachin State. This survey was based on the use of satellite remote sensing as the primary source of data for East and South Shan state. In these two regions, satellite remote sensing was supplemented by field surveys to provide ground truthing and to support the interpretation of opium poppy fields. In the other regions estimate of planted area are derived from the sampled socio economic survey described below.

2. An opium poppy yield estimation survey in the three regions of the Shan State and Kachin for the description and measurement of opium field that were researched within a random set of sample sites.

3. A socioeconomic survey in 810 villages randomly selected over Shan State, Kayah State, and Kachin State based on interviews with village headmen and heads of households of the villages selected.

3.1 Sampling procedure for the village survey

The planning of the surveys started with the definition of the sampling frame. The sampling frame is composed by the complete village listing provided by the Central Committee of Drug Abuse Control in Myanmar. The village listing includes name of villages, regions, township names and codes, village track codes and growing opium poppy history (only in some cases). The more information is available about the population, the easier it is to devise a sample that will lead to more accurate estimates.

The definition of the sample size was influenced by a number of requirements and constraints. The main requirement was the level of accuracy considered acceptable for the estimates, whereas the constraints were either economic or logistical.

It was agreed that the socio-economic survey would be conducted on sample of 810 villages. This is approximately 5% sampling of the 16,075 villages listed by the Myanmar's Forest Department.

Taking into account the potential source of bias from the village database, as well as considering that the database may not be as accurate as desired (because some villages may not exist anymore, some may have moved, some others may have changed names or have merged with other villages), a contingency plan had to be developed at the time of sample selection. Therefore, in case a village identified in the survey listing could not be found, an alternative village was selected to replace it. Although the sample size had to be reduced as in several cases neither the originally sampled village nor the replacement village could be identified on the ground, the stratification structure of the sample was kept intact.

Finally, a total of 487 villages in the Shan State, 99 villages in Kayah State and 83 villages in Kachin State were selected, including more than 44,543 households and a population of 252,531.The information covered in this sample was thus equivalent to approximately 5% of the total estimated population of 5,690,820 in the Shan State, Kayah State and Kachin State.

The ethnic composition of the regions of the Shan State is possibly the most diversified in the whole of the Union of Myanmar. The sampling of this year reflects major ethnic groups present in each region surveyed. In East Shan State 50% surveyed were Shan, in South Shan State 72% were Shan and Paoh. In North Shan State, where more ethnic groups are present, Shan represent 46% of the population surveyed, with the remained comprising a number of ethnic groups.

3.2 Survey organization

The survey campaigns were coordinated by the UNODC/ICMP office in Yangon and as in previous years, operationally implemented in close collaboration with Myanmar official institutions:

The ground survey to collect opium yield and socio-economic data were supervised and implemented by the Myanmar CCDAC, while the UNODC/ICMP provided technical support, coordination and supervision throughout the survey. The rapid assessment survey as well as the assessment of the opium ban in Wa Special region 2 was implemented directly by UNODC/ICMP, though still in close collaboration with CCDAC and Wa authorities that participated in field supervision. The area estimation campaign was conducted in collaboration with the remote sensing and GIS section of the Ministry of Forestry.

Three separate teams, each comprising two surveyors from the Remote Sensing and GIS Section of the Department of Forestry, visited the field with print outs of the satellite images. Once they reached the area represented in each single scene, they proceeded to annotate the print with the land use classes and relative boundaries, proceeding along specific transect itineraries.

Field operations started the second week of December 2005 and continued until mid February for Shan and Kayah States and up to March 2006 for Kachin State. Due to a worsening of the security situation in East and particularly in South Shan 22% of the sampled villages in South Shan and some in East Shan could not be visited by ground surveyors. At 19 out of 20 satellite image locations ground truth data could be collected, although in some cases only partially.

3.3 Field operations

For the socio-economic and yield estimation campaign, 153 surveyors carried out the fieldwork from 13 December 2005 to mid-February 2006. In Kachin State where opium is harvested later the date was extended up to middle of March. They were organized in 51 teams (17 teams for SSS, 16 for NSS, 10 for ESS, 3 for Kayah State and 5 for Kachin State). In each team there was one surveyor from the Police Force, one from the General Administration Department and one from the Land Record Department or the Myanmar Agriculture Service. Work was coordinated by a head supervisor based in Taunggyi who relied on the work of four local supervisors, one each for the five Regions (North, South, East Shan, Kayah and Kachin). The survey teams were all involved in interviews with village headmen and heads of household, as well as field measurements for the collection of yield estimation variables.

Each survey team was assigned to a township. Four townships with a heavier workload were assigned two-survey teams each (Lashio, Thibaw, Tangyang and Kengtong townships). The fieldwork survey started on December 13, 2005 in the South Shan and Kayah by 20 teams, and all the 60 trainees were in the field by December 15. The teams in Kachin State (15 teams) started survey on February 12, 2006 and worked in the fields until March 15. The supervision teams met all the teams during the field survey to assess the progress of the survey and ensure quality control. The duration of the ground survey was 8 weeks and operations were wrapped up by the second week of March.

As the majority of opium gum collection takes place between early September and late December, it is of vital importance that surveyors commence their work as early as possible, in order for them not to miss the opportunity for measuring the crops' fruits.

Some inconsistencies or missing data were found in 7 questionnaires from South Shan State and were consequently disregarded. Another 81 villages questionnaires were missing due to non-existing villages or non-accessibility due to the security situation.

3.4 Procedures for the opium poppy area estimate

The area estimate for South and East Shan is based on interpretation of satellite images. The other regions required a different approach as their level of opium poppy cultivation is much lower.

Here, the area estimate is based on the village sample survey.

For the area estimate of opium poppy cultivation in South and East Shan, a remote sensing methodology was applied with very high-resolution satellite images from selected sample locations in the study area.

At 20 selected locations, Ikonos images with 1-meter resolution (pan-sharpened, 4 bands) images were acquired. The number of images was limited due to budget restrictions. For every location, images at two different dates were purchased with a 5 weeks interval (December/January and February/March). Two date images facilitate the identification of the opium poppy, taking into account the different crop calendars for every region obtained from the former surveys.

Sampling frame for the satellite image locations selection

To select the sample locations of the satellite images, a sampling frame was designed. The sampling frame was developed by the combination of the following factors:

- Land cover 2005
- Altitude
- Slope
- Opium poppy free areas according to ground information

The land cover map was developed by classifying 6 Landsat-5 satellite images taken in February/March 2005. From this map the large agricultural areas were extracted and considered as poppy free, since the cultivation of opium poppy is practised in small agricultural areas, often surrounded by natural vegetation. The other land use classes were considered as potential for opium poppy growing.

Altitude was taken as factor since former surveys had revealed that 95% of the opium poppy was cultivated at altitudes between 800-1800 meter. A 90-meter resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was used to extract the area that meets these altitude conditions.

Figure 35: Altitude distribution of opium poppy fields in South and East Shan, 2005

[twice the size]

Slope. From the DEM, a slope map was derived and used to exclude areas with less than 5% slope, since these are the large, higly accessible areas with little potential to hide the opium poppy.

From information on the ground, several opium poppy free areas were identified: Special Region 4 and the townships Mongyang, Tachileik, Kalaw, Pindaya, Taunggyi and Ywangan as well as a 10-km buffer zone along the border with Thailand. These areas were excluded from the sampling frame.

These factors were combined in a Geographic Information System to calculate the sampling frame. A grid with 10 by 10 kilometers was put on top of this sampling frame to select the image locations. Locations that were sampled last year were selected again, if they matched the selection criteria (8 locations). The rest of the images were selected randomly within the sampling area. In total 25 locations were selected in this way but due to climatic conditions only the images at 20 locations could successfully be acquired.

Map 13: Sampling frame area and Ikonos satellite image acquisitions, Myanmar 2006

[twice the size] Source: Government of Myanmar - National monitoring system supported by UNODC The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations

Processing of the satellite images

The classification procedure of the Ikonos images is following steps as illustrated in the following flow chart.

Figure 36: Flow chart of the processing of the satellite images in the South and East Shan

[twice the size]

The satellite images were classified with the groundtruth data collected by the ground control teams. For the first collected images, supervised classifications with maximum likelihood rules were applied to obtain maps that identified different land cover classes as forest, scrubs, grass, agricultural land and possible poppy areas. The second collection images were classified in the same way, after which applying logical rules combined the two resulting maps. The rules could vary by region and stage of the poppy crop, however the most commonly applied rule was that potential poppy in the first classification, classified as bare soil in the second classification means that it was opium poppy.

Statistical procedures for the area estimate

Information about the number of households involved in opium cultivation was collected during the village survey for all regions. Based on the available sampling frame, results were extrapolated using an average area under opium poppy cultivation per household, and an estimate of the total area under cultivation was derived. For Kachin, Kayah and North Shan, the area estimates from the village survey were used, while for South and East Shan, the results of the remote sensing were used. For South and East Shan, the area estimates from the village survey could be compared with the estimates from the satellite image interpretation. Bearing in mind that farmers tend to underestimate the extent of the area under opium poppy cultivation, both estimates were found to be statistically significantly close.

In order to calculate confidence intervals for the estimates and given the small number of segments of East and South Shan State, the skewed distributions of the proportion of opium poppy found on East and South Shan State were merged together and subsequently refined by the bootstrap method. Bootstrap is recommended when the sample observations have different sizes, which was the case during this survey. Because the total agricultural land differs in each selected segments, the standard formulae for confidence intervals calculation cannot be applied.

Bootstrap with 100,000 iterations revealed that there is a 90% probability that the extent of the opium poppy cultivation estimated in East and South Shan State from satellite imagery lies between 9,700 hectares to 29,700 hectares.

3.6 Description of opium poppy cultivation intensity by township in Shan State

Based on the results from the socio-economic and remote sensing surveys of the last years and field observations during several field survey campaigns this year, the townships of Shan State were divided into opium-poppy free, low intensity and high intensity opium poppy cultivation townships. This information is potentially useful to improve the sampling procedure of future surveys. The following categorisation of townships in Shan State by cultivation intensity level is a contribution towards this end.

Opium poppy-free are those townships, which do not have any trace of opium poppy cultivation in 2006, according to the information available.

For low intensity opium poppy cultivation townships, there is evidence of opium poppy cultivation. However, the fields are not easy to detect, often far from roads and villages, and only a few villages are involved.

In high intensity opium poppy cultivation townships, a large number of villages is involved in opium poppy cultivation. The crop is grown openly and in locations, which are easy to detect and close to villages. A tendency towards intensification can be observed, which includes multi-cropping and cultivation of opium poppy on lowland, where it can be irrigated.

Shan State is comprised of 50 townships and Special Region 2. 21 townships are in South Shan State, 19 in North Shan State and 10 in East Shan State. In townships where armed ethnic groups retain control and in areas where the government has negotiated a ceasefire, opium poppy cultivation has often become a predominant form of livelihood. Conversely, in most townships under full government control, no evidence of cultivation exists.

Opium poppy-free townships

19 out of 50 townships (38 %) in Shan State are opium poppy-free.

East Shan State

The East Shan State is comprised of 10 townships. 2 townships (Mongyang and Tachileik) were found to be entirely free of opium poppy:

Half of Mongyang Township is located in Special Region 4 of Shan State, which has been opium- free since 1997. The other half of Mongyang Township is located in Wa Special Region 2 where an opium ban was imposed in 2005. 12 villages in the vicinity of Mongyang are under the control of the Government of the Union of Myanmar (GOUM) and these are also opium-free.

In 2006, survey teams had the opportunity to visit a greater part of the Tachileik Township area.

The Loi Daw Kham village tract, located on the Thai border and notorious for opium poppy cultivation before control was transferred from the Ah Kar Peoples' Militia Group to the GOUM, was found to be entirely free of opium cultivation.

North Shan State

5 townships (Namsang (N), Mongyai, Thibaw, Namtu, and Kyaukme) were found to be opium poppy free in 2005.

In addition another 8 townships as described below are confirmed to be opium poppy-free in 2006: In Naungcho, Moemeik and Mabein no opium poppy cultivation or eradication has been reported to occur in any of these townships in the last two years.

No opium poppy cultivation has been reported in Muse since last year. The majority of land upon which opium poppy was previously grown is located parallel and in close proximity to the Chinese border. A potential primary factor in determining why the area has remained opium poppy-free is the absence of any active armed group in Muse.

Laukkaing and Kongkyan townships are located in Kokang Special Region 1, an area that has, officially, remained opium-free since 2003. Laukkaing and Kongkyan were surveyed in 2005 and the official postulation was confirmed as neither opium cultivation nor opium production was detected. Similarly, a brief assessment in the 2006 survey reconfirmed the status of Kokang Special Region 1 as opium poppy-free.

Kunlon and Hopan Townships are located close to Kokang Special Region 1 and Special Region 2 (Wa). A monitoring trip was carried out in 2006 with the intention to scrutinize whether the opium ban imposed throughout the Wa in June 2005 would result in a "balloon effect" in terms of prompting the resumption of cultivation here. No opium cultivation or significant in-migration was observed. Kunlon Township banned the opium poppy over two years ago, while Hopan (the majority of which is located in Special Region 2 (Wa) has been free of the illicit crop since 2000.

South Shan State

The four townships of Kalaw, Pindaya, Ywangan and Taunggyi were found to be entirely free of opium poppy cultivation. No evidence of opium poppy cultivation in those townships was discovered over two consecutive years of surveying.

Map 14: Opium poppy cultivation in Shan State, Myanmar, 2006

[twice the size] Source: Government of Myanmar - National monitoring system supported by UNODC The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

Low intensity opium cultivating townships

A low level of opium poppy cultivation was detected in 21 townships out of 50, which amounts to 42%.

East Shan State

Opium cultivation continued to take place in 8 townships (Mongsat, Mongtong, Metmang, Mongkhat, Kyaington, Mongpyin, Mongpyat,and Mongyaung), as reported by both field surveyors and government eradication teams. However, the extent is limited, occurring in only a few villages in each township. In the cultivating villages, opium poppy fields are typically located in remote places.

Mongsat and Mongtong Townships

Mongsat and Mongtong Townships are located in the southern part of East Shan State. In most parts, the area is of low elevation, with mountain ranges in the north and south. In 2005, a UNODC team conducted a Rapid Assessment Survey of the southern parts of both townships, which are under the control of the Wa authorities, and found them to be opium poppy-free. Some opium poppy cultivation still persists in the northern areas.

Metmang, Mongkhat, Kyaington and Mongpyin Townships

These townships are located in the central part of East Shan State. The area is of high elevation, and although a number of main roads link each town. Most villages, however, remain isolated and without road access. Climatic conditions in the area render multiple cropping of the opium poppy unfeasible and no such cases were observed in villages visited by the survey team.

A number of particularly remote villages in certain village tracts of those townships are notorious for opium cultivation. These include:

Kyaington:                Pan Mat, Mongpan, Monginn, Mongkun
Tong Tar (Sub-Tsp):       Mongshun, Phar War
Mongpyin:                 Tar Kor, Sin Moung, Pyat Kan, Mongshan, Wan Mat Lone
Mongkhat:                 Mongnyne, Monghair
Metmang:                  Wansalaung Yaung Ou

Mongpyat and Mongyaung Townships

A very limited number of villages in the Mongpyat and Mongyaung Townships continue to cultivate opium poppy. Most of the land is of a notably low elevation and the temperature tends to be high all year, a fact that creates sub-optimal conditions for opium poppy cultivation. The area under opium cultivation in these townships was found to be at lower altitudes compared to any other areas surveyed.

North Shan State

In Tangyang, Lashio, Manton, Namkham, Kutkai and Theinne Townships, opium poppy cultivation has continued to take place, as reported by both field surveyors and government eradication teams. However, the extent of cultivation is very limited in relation to the rest of the Shan State, occurring only in a small number of villages in each township. Previously, those areas were notorious for commercialized cultivation. However, in places where law enforcement has tightened up, opium poppy cultivation has declined considerably.

Loi Tauk and Loi Pwi Ranges in Theinne and Lashio Townships

The Loi Tauk mountain range borders both the Theinne and Lashio Townships, while Loi Pwi is located within Lashio. Both are controlled by two armed ethnic groups (KDA and Manpan Militia) who returned to the legal fold. Approximately 500 hectares of opium poppy fields were eradicated on the Loi Tauk range during the 2004-2005 growing season. Only a small number of opium poppy fields were observed this year. A government military out-post in this area reported that 8 ha of cultivated opium was eradicated by the KDA and the Manpan Militia. Another estimated 40 ha were already earmarked for eradication.

Pansae Range in Namkham, Kutkai and Manton Townships

The Pansae range stretches along the border between Namkham, Kutkai and Manton Townships, and reaches as high as 2,300 meters altitude in some places. The Pansae armed ethnic group controls the mountain range and a significant number of opium poppy fields were observed on its slopes during the 2005 survey.

Survey interviewees reported that land is prepared for opium poppy cultivation each year in the hope that local authorities will continue to overlook the practice. There is a high probability that without intervention opium poppy fields will emerge along the range once more. However, the frequency, with which the authorities have ordered and enforced the cessation of cultivation, is increasing. As a consequence, many fields prepared for opium poppy were left uncultivated. Such fields are typically located along or near roads where the risk of detection and eradication is high.

Authorities in Namkham reported that eradication of approximately 7 ha of opium poppy along the Pansae range in January 2006. Nevertheless, local anecdotal information has indicated that opium poppy fields continue to be cultivated in those valleys, which remain largely out of sight from the roads on Pansae range.

Isolated field in Miako area, Tantyang township [twice the size]

Maikao in Southern Tantyang Township

Maikao is located 25 km from Tang Yang's centre and it occupies the southern part of the township territory. This area is remote with only limited opium poppy cultivation.

South Shan State

Limited opium poppy cultivation can be found in seven townships of South Shan State with some more notorious village tracts.

Monea:              Haing Nwe, Naung Laing
Maingpan:           Mikepote
Linkhay:            Pantawi
Nyaungshwe:         Tiwamu
Namsang South: Tone Hone, Narpwe, Wannaung and Mongseik
Maukmai             (southern-most area)
Yaukshauk

High intensity opium poppy cultivating townships

Ten townships in South Shan State are notorious for their high level of opium poppy cultivation. This is 20% of the 50 townships in Shan State.

The 10 townships are located in highlands and mountains between elevations of 900 to 2,000 meters. The mountain ranges typically run north to south, which ensures that their eastern and western slopes are fully exposed to sunlight. The climate is cool and the average monthly precipitation during the period of vegetative growth of opium poppy crops is 250 to 300 mm.

Precipitation levels fall during the gum collection period in the winter season. The environment therefore is highly favourable for the cultivation of opium poppy.

Pinlaung and Pekhon Townships

Opium poppy plantation in a vallley in Pinlaung township, South Shan State [twice the size]

Pinlaung Township is situated on the west bank of Inle Lake, between Nyaung Shwe and Kalaw Townships. Its elevation ranges from 1,329 m at Lonepyin village to 1,654 m at Pinthale village.

The topographic and climatic conditions make Pinlaung a site favourable to opium poppy cultivation. The opium poppy is cultivated commercially on the remote mountain ranges in Pinlaung, particularly those bordering Nyaungshwe. Police sources report that a total of 404 hectares of opium poppy were eradicated in 2006. The Paoh National Organization (PNO), a ceasefire group, controls the entire township.

Pekhon is located to the south of Pinlaung Township. Topographic and climatic conditions vary widely within Pekhon Township. Most of Pekhon is situated at the elevation of 900 meters, whereas the western part of the township is mountainous at elevations of 1,300 to 1,400 meters.

Western Pekhon shares similar conditions with Pinlaung. The Kayan National Liberation Army (KNLA) controls the area, and over 280 hectares of eradicated opium poppy were reported there this year.

Opium poppy plantation in Ei-ngan valley in Pekhon township, South Shan State [twice the size]

Hsihseng and Hopong Townships

Hsihseng and Hopong Townships are located to the southeast of Taunggyi. Hopong is located at an elevation of 1,060 meters and Hsihseng at 969 meters, and the eastern parts of both townships are dominated by high mountain ranges. The Maenai Range in Hopong (elevation: 2,211 m) and the Loimaw Range in Hsihseng (elevation: 2,036 m) are the highest peaks, which remain the most notorious for opium cultivation.

At the foot of Maenai Range, elevation is high, which renders the entire area favourable to the cultivation of opium poppy. Examples of opium cultivating villages in Hopong are Sanphu village (1,590 m), Kyaukkachar village (1,643 m), Laikon (1,538 m), and Namhu village (1,415 m). At the foot of Loimaw range, Htanyang (1,452 m), Htikham (1,426 m), Pin-aun (1,471 m) are also known to cultivate opium poppy. Climatic conditions are highly favourable for opium poppy cultivation in these areas.

The Maenai Range in Hopong Township is the most notorious opium cultivating area in the entire region. Opium cultivation has increased considerably in 2006 and hundreds of opium fields can be seen on top of the mountain range. Traditionally, opium poppy fields covered the entire summit of the Maenai Range in Hopong Township. In contrast to the situation last, this year surveyors observed vast fields in all directions and on surrounding mountain ranges. It is very difficult to estimate the total size of the opium cultivation area through a ground survey since it is covering entire slopes along the mountain range.

Opium cultivation has a long history in the Hopong and Hsihseng areas. These areas are under the control of the Paoh National Organization (PNO) and the Shan Nationalities Peoples' Liberation Army (SNPLA). In 2006, around 1,100 hectares of opium poppy have been eradicated in Hopong Township, and 285 hectares in Hsihseng Township. Nevertheless, PNO (Paoh National Organization) launched a substantial campaign for total eradication of opium poppy in January 2006. Effective eradication has taken place by organizing large groups comprising of PNO members, local authorities, armed personnel and local villagers. All the opium poppy fields found were uprooted. When survey team visited this area again in late January, there was no evidence of opium poppy in all fields. According to the PNO authorities, the total area eradicated in their territory (covering Pinlaung, Taunggyi, Nyaung Shwe, Pindaya, Loilin, eastern Hopong and western Hsihseng) may exceed 4,000 heactares. This figure is, however, very unlikely since it is more than the total national figure for eradication as reported by the CCDAC, which is 3,970 hectares.

Loimaw Range

Opium poppy fields on Loimaw Range in Hsihseng Township, South Shan State [twice the size]

The Loimaw Range is located in the eastern part of Hsihseng Township and is controlled by the Shan Nationalities Peoples' Liberation Army (SNPLA). At the time of visit, most of opium poppy fields on Loimaw range close to the road were already eradicated. However, one area where extensive opium cultivation was identified by the survey team in 2006 was left uneradicated.

Opium poppy fields can be found in abundance along the hillside between Pin-aun Village and Naung-ei village.

This place is quite remote and probably out of reach of the authorities. Large-scale cultivation was found on both the hillsides and along roads. The fields were very dense and plants were very vigorous. Behind the mountain range, vast fields of opium poppy were discovered.

Loilin, Leacha, Mongkaing, Kyaethi, Kunhein, and Mongshu Townships

These townships are close to each other with the average elevation of 1000 m. A mountain range, running north to south, is situated in the western parts of the Loilin, Leacha and Mongkaing townships. Opium cultivation is prominent along the slopes of this range.

Vast opium poppy cultivation can be observed on the Hsanin-Hsahaung Range in Loilin, Pangsanang Range in Leacha and Mongkaing Townships.

The Myanmar government has launched a large opium poppy eradication campaign in this area and reported the eradication of around 500 hectares in January 2006.

Hsanin-Hsahaung Range

Except Loilin and Namsam (S), the entire area is controlled by insurgent groups. No civilians can gain access to the area without a security escort. In this area, the Hsanin-Hsahaung Range is the most notorious for opium poppy cultivation. It stretches north to south in Loilin Township. In this area, Hsanin village, Hsahaung village and Wanyein villages are notorious for large-scale opium production. During an official visit to Taunggyi in last May, Taunggyi Anti-narcotic Task Force has reported that they have seized a refinery with 343 kg of brown opium powder near Wanyein village.

Opium poppy fields on Pangsanang range in Lecha and Mongkaingh townships, South Shan State [twice the size]

Pangsanang Range

Pangsanang Range extends north to south in Leacha and Mongkaing Townships. It is also known for its vast opium poppy fields. Since it is situated in an insurgent area, no sources of information were available.

Hillside near Kyu Yone village

Opium poppy fields near Kyu Yone villages in Loilin township, South Shan State [twice the size]

Opium poppy fields are also found in abundance near Kyu Yone village just two to three miles away from Pinlon Town. All opium poppy fields in the area are growing vigorously and bearing flowers at the time of visit. However, the survey team leader (Loilin) reported that they could not believe this scene since they had eradicated the very same fields two months earlier.

While in Mongshu, the UNODC surveyors visited three opium poppy fields on the outskirts of the town. Two fields were situated on a hillside, while the third was at the foot of the hill. At the time of the visit the crops were about to flower, which suggested that the seeds were most probably sown in the second week of November. Although the third field was adjacent to the road and in very close proximity, the farmer did not appear to be concerned by the visit.

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