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PART 3. LAOS

Contents

Abbreviations
Acknowledgements
Preface
Fact Sheet - Laos Opium Survey 2006
Executive Summary
Opium Poppy Cultivation
Opium Yield and Production
Opium Prices
1 Introduction
2 Findings
2.1. Area Under Opium Poppy Cultivation
2.2. Cultivation Practices and Crop Calendar
2.3. Yield and production
Methodology
3.1. Helicopter Survey
3.2. Sampling Frame
3.3. Stratification
3.4. Sample Size
3.5. Estimation Procedure

Abbreviations

UNODC             United Nation Office on Drug and Crime
GoL               Government of Laos
ICMP              Illicit Crop Monitoring Programme
LCDC              Lao Commission for Drug Control and Supervision
PCDC              Provincial Committee for Drug Control
DCDC              District Committee for Drug Control
NTFP              Non-Timber Forest Products
PFU               Programme Facilitation Unit
RAS               Research and Analysis Section (UNODC)

Acknowledgements

Government of the Lao PDR

Preface

On 14 February 2006, Laos declared to the world that it was virtually opium free. Opium poppy cultivation has declined to just 1,800 hectares in 2005, down from 26,870 hectares in 1998, a 93 per cent decline. Moreover, domestic opium consumption has been reduced by over 68 per cent over the same period.

In 2006, for the second consecutive year - in spite of a slight increase in area cultivated to 2,500 hectares - Laos has been able to maintain opium poppy cultivation at an insignificant level. This successful achievement is also recognized for the knockdown effect it has in the cross border battle against drugs in the subregion.

The Lao Government is to be praised for its efforts but it also needs much in terms of sustained support and help. Socio-economic studies indicate that about 50 per cent of the 2,056 villages that used to grow opium poppy still require development assistance and could revert back to opium for lack of alternatives. Many former opium poppy farmers are just coping. Others, like Mrs. Mai Ya, a Hmong farmer from Oudomxay, have been able to get 50 times more income from peaches, pineapples, peas, poultry and pigs than she had ever received from opium poppies.

It is time now to increase assistance to Laos and help its poor opium poppy farmers develop alternative livelihoods. With lessons learned from past projects in Laos and the region, investments could reap more rapid impacts and results.

The Lao Government, neighbouring countries and the international community must get together in a joint coordinated effort to provide the assistance that is urgently required and help make this most recent victory against drugs a lasting one.

Leik Boonwaat
Representative
UNODC Lao PDR

Fact Sheet - Laos Opium Survey 2006

1 Source: LCDC, provincial authorities survey.
2 Source: LCDC.
3 Source: LCDC. Survey areas of 2005 and 2006 are not comparable.

Executive Summary

The 2006 opium poppy survey in the Lao PDR was conducted jointly by the Lao Government and UNODC across seven provinces of northern Laos. As in 2005, the methodology consisted of an aerial survey by helicopter over sample sites. This year, due to stronger enforcement of the opium ban, it was not possible to conduct a socio-economic survey among opium farmers. However, a more limited study, assessing the coping strategies of farmers abandoning opium cultivation in Oudomxay province, was conducted by UNODC.

Opium poppy cultivation

The total area under opium poppy cultivation in the Lao PDR in 2006 was estimated at 2,500 hectares. This is an increase of 39% compared to 2005 (1,800 ha). However, the level of opium poppy cultivation in Laos remains at a very low level compared to 1998 when it culminated at 26,600 ha. Although opium cultivation has virtually been eliminated, more work is needed to sustain this achievement, since poor farmers who abandoned opium poppy cultivation need alternative livelihood options.

Figure 6: Estimated area under opium poppy cultivation in Laos PDR, 1992 - 2006

[twice the size]

Opium yield and production

The average national opium yield potential for 2006 was estimated at 8 kg/ha. Since it was not possible to conduct a full yield survey in 2006, the yield estimate was based on a three-year average of the 2003-2005 yield estimates. In 2006, similarly to 2005, weather conditions were favourable for opium poppy cultivation and field assessments of standing opium fields revealed that crop vigour was similar to previous years. Based on the estimated area under cultivation, the potential production of opium for the year 2006 was 20 mt, which is a 40% increase with respect to 2005. However, opium production in 2006 remained low and was only 12% of the potential opium production in 2000.

Figure 7: Potential opium production (metric tons), 1992 - 2006

[twice the size]

Opium prices

Due to stronger enforcement of the opium ban, it was not possible to collect farm-gate prices of opium during the time of the survey this year. However opium prices have been collected at provincial level by the local authorities soon after the 2006 opium harvest. Like in 2005, there was no clear distinction between wholesale and retail prices, since opium was mainly bought and consumed by local addicts and only limited amounts were destined for markets outside the province. Opium prices remained high with a mean value estimated at US$550 per kg, representing an increase of 5% compared to prices during the same time in the previous season.

The strong opium prices make it more attractive for farmers to revert to opium production, especially if no alternative sources of income are available. It is therefore of paramount importance to provide relief and development assistance to the most affected population in the region.

1 Introduction

This report presents the results of the seventh consecutive opium survey, conducted annually in Laos by the Lao National Commission for Drug Control and Supervision (LCDC), with the support and participation of UNODC. UNODC started to carry out extensive yearly surveys since 1992, based on an inventory of all known opium producing villages. Similar surveys were conducted in 1996, 1998 and then annually since 2000.

In 1999 the Government of Lao PDR and UNODC developed the programme strategy "Balanced approach to opium elimination in the Lao PDR". This was backed up in November 2000 by the Prime Minister Order fourteen, stipulating measures against cultivation and abuse. In 2001 the 7th National party Congress called for opium production and use which was linked with poverty reduction to be eliminated by 2005. A National Campaign against Drugs was launched in October 2001 to mobilize and convince communities to give up opium production. The government has increased the momentum of this campaign during the last two years and Laos is now on the verge of becoming opium poppy free.

Flowering opium poppy field in a forest clearing [twice the size]

Close monitoring of the remaining opium cultivation is necessary not only to sustain the elimination effort but also to prevent any possible resumption. In neighbouring Thailand, which was declared opium poppy-free in 2002, monitoring continues under similar conditions, and a few hundreds hectares of opium poppy are discovered every year.

In 2006, a helicopter was used to survey seven provinces4 of Northern Lao where opium poppy used to be cultivated and where the probability to find some cultivation is still high. This methodology was already successfully implemented in 2005, when it proved to be cost effective and reliable in areas where opium poppy cultivation is limited, dispersed and moving into remote (hilly) areas. In addtition, a study the coping strategies of farmers who stopped cultivating opium poppy was implemented. This study revealed how important it is to understand the coping strategies of ex-opium poppy farmers in order to facilitate the transition towards a licit economy.

4 In 2006, districts of the Special Region Xaisomboun were merged with other provinces (Vientiane and Xiengkhouang Province). However, the annual survey was designed before the merger and Special Region Xaisomboun is recorded as a separate province in this report.

2 Findings

The helicopter survey implemented by UNODC, in coordination with the Ministry of Defence of Lao PDR, covered the seven northern provinces of Lao PDR. It aimed at estimating the remaining opium cultivation in the country. The survey covered a distance of approximately 2,000 km over the provinces of Phongsaly, Luang Namtha, Oudomxay, Luangprabang, Xiengkhouang, Houphanh and Xaisomboune Special Region during more than 25 flight hours. The aerial survey covered 70 randomly sampled segments of 5 by 5 km each.

Data on opium yield and cultivation practices were collected by two teams of ground surveyors who visited opium poppy fields identified during the helicopter survey.

Opium poppy fields, Phongsaly Province [twice the size]

2.1 Area under opium poppy cultivation

The aerial survey revealed the existence of opium poppy cultivation in seven provinces in Northern Laos (Phongsaly, Luang Namtha, Oudomxay, Luangprabang, Xiengkhouang, Houphanh and Xaisomboune Special Region).

In 2006, the area under opium cultivation was estimated at 2,500 hectares, with a confidence interval ranging from 2,040 - 2,990 hectares at 90% probability. This was a 39% increase compared with 2005 (1,800 ha), but still 91% lower than in 1998 (26,800 ha). It can be assumed that the actual area harvested was smaller due to the vigorous eradication efforts by the government, part of which took place after the aerial survey.

Map 6: Sample segments surveyed by helicopter, Northern Laos, 2006

[twice the size]

Figure 8: Estimated area under opium poppy cultivation (hectares), 1992 ­ 2006

[twice the size]

The estimated area under opium poppy cultivation was calculated based on a sampling frame which included the potential area for opium poppy cultivation in Phongsaly, Luang Namtha, Oudomxay, Luangprabang, Houaphanh, Xiengkhouang, and Special Region Xaisomboune. It is assumed that opium poppy cultivation outside this area is negligible. An accuracy assessment was performed based on field measurements through ground surveyors in order to verify the size of the fields found on the randomly selected segments.

Opium poppy fields were found in 24 out of 65 randomly selected grids. Five grids out of 70 were not surveyed due to logistical problems. The average land under opium poppy cultivation was 2.9 hectares per grid, with some grids having as much as 12 hectares of opium poppy.

Opium poppy fields in a remote area of Phongsaly province [twice the size]

The helicopter survey also found a significant difference between the proportion of opium poppy planted close to the village and further away. Most opium poppy fields were in the vicinity of the villages (within a radius of 2.5 km), where labour is easily available. However, opium poppy fields were also found outside this area, possibly to reduce the risk of eradication. In those few cases, temporary camps (shacks) could be observed next to the fields, which allow labourers to stay overnight during harvest time.

Shacks on opium poppy fields far from the next village, Phongsaly Province [twice the size]

The number of opium poppy cultivating households in 2006 was 5,800, as reported by the Government of Lao PDR at the provincial level. This number is not directly comparable to previous year estimates, which were based on the annual village survey. It seems that only a few households have abandoned opium poppy cultivation this year compared to previous years.

Reasons for continuing opium poppy cultivation in spite of the ban could be the lack of alternative livelihood options but also the increased opium prices.

Opium poppy growing on small plots in a village, Phongsaly province [twice the size]

2.2 Cultivation practices and crop calendar

Opium poppy cultivation in Laos has become rare over the last few years. The main area of cultivation and production is found in Phongsaly province, and only some pockets of cultivation remain in the other six northern provinces. The Lao Government has implemented targeted eradication campaigns over the last years, aiming at total eradication in 2006. To avoid eradication, farmers are moving illicit cultivation to more remote locations, in some cases far away from villages. Another strategy is to cultivate a smaller area of opium poppy, but on better soils with improved cultivation practices. Several opium poppy fields were found near rivers and streams with good irrigation. Ground survey teams also witnessed multi-stage cropping (different growing stages on the same field). Farmers reportedly planted opium poppy at different stages to avoid eradication of the entire harvest, since eradication teams hardly ever return to the same field in the same year.

Observations done during the helicopter survey showed no major changes in the crop calendar compared to previous years. The ground survey team confirmed that harvesting of opium started at the end of January and was completed by mid March at the latest. The peak of harvesting was in early February.

Fenced opium poppy field close to a village, Phongsaly province [twice the size]

Map 7: Example of opium poppy fields identified during the helicopter survey

[twice the size]

2.3 Yield and production

The average national opium yield potential for 2006 was estimated at 8 kg/ha. Since it was not possible to conduct a full yield survey with capsule measurements in 2006 due to security and logistical reasons, the yield estimate was based on a three-year average of the 2003 - 2005 yield estimates. In 2006, similarly to 2005, weather conditions were favourable for opium poppy cultivation and field assessments of standing opium fields revealed that crop vigour was similar to previous years.

Based on the estimated area under cultivation, the potential production of opium for the year 2006 was 20 mt, which is a 40% increase with respect to 2005. However, opium production in 2006 remains low and is only 12 % of the potential opium production in 2000 (167 mt).

Figure 9: Potential opium production (metric tons), 1992 - 2006

[twice the size]

3 Methodology

3.1 Helicopter survey

Under its global Illicit Crop Monitoring Programme, the United Nations Office for Drugs and Crime (UNODC) has established methodologies for data collection and analysis, to increase the capacity of member states to monitor illicit crops, and to assist the international community in monitoring the extent and evolution of illicit crops.

Due to the small size and the limited accessibility of the area under opium poppy cultivation in Laos, coupled with the relative scarcity of the target crop, the aerial survey by helicopter was chosen as a feasible way to estimate the extent of opium poppy cultivation in Lao PDR.

Photo documentation of opium poppy fields with a GPS-enabled camera (Courtesy Alessandro Scotti) [twice the size]

3.2 Sampling frame

As in any type of survey, the quality of the data collected from the aerial survey depends to a large extent on the quality of the sampling frame from which the sample is selected. Thus, building the sampling frame to collect data to verify the existence of opium poppy fields and to estimate the extent of the opium poppy cultivation in this country is a major challenge, particularly given the changing conditions of the cultivation of this crop.

The sampling frame for the area estimation in 2006 was established by defining the potential land available for opium poppy cultivation in Northern Laos (Phongsaly, Luang Namtha, Oudomxay, Luangprabang, Huaphanh, Xiengkhouang, and Special Region Xaisomboun), from which a sample of segments was selected. The places where opium poppy is grown in Northern Laos are mainly found in mountainous areas avoiding large, plane, developed areas, which are located at the lower altitudes. Former surveys revealed that 80% of the opium poppy-growing villages are situated above 800 meters altitude or at slopes of more than 10%. These topographic characteristics were used to limit the sampling frame area. This calculation was performed with the help of a Geographic Information System where a digital elevation model (with 90 meter pixels) and its derived slope map were used and to delineate the areas that are either above 800 meters altitude or that have slopes of more than 10%.

The resulting sampling frame was divided into a set of rectangular grids of 5 km by 5 km. Limiting the sampling frame area, however, carries the risk of missing portions of the crop; therefore it should be taken into account that the resulting estimated area under cultivation refers only to the area as defined above.

Map 8: Sampling frame and selected segments for the helicopter survey, Northern Laos, 2006

[twice the size]

Source: The Government of Lao PDR - national monitoring system supported by UNODC The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations

3.3 Stratification

Previous sample designs and data analysis experience in the region have shown the existence of sharp differences in the distribution of the opium poppy cultivation across the entire area under research. Therefore, in this aerial survey, with the view to achieve a reliable level of precision, auxiliary data collected during previous surveys has been used to reinforce the structure of the sampling frame.

Information on the historical opium poppy growing status was used in the stratification of the sample selection. In the period 2000-2003, extensive surveys[5] were performed at the village level, which were used to divide the villages in opium poppy-growing villages (growing opium poppy at least once in the 2000-2003 period) versus non-growing villages. Circular areas (buffers) with 2.5 km radius were built around each opium poppy growing village. These buffers were identified as areas with the highest likelihood to find opium poppy cultivation.

5 UNODC, Laos Opium Survey 2000; UNODC Laos Opium Survey 2001; UNODC Laos Opium Survey 2002; UNODC Laos Opium Survey 2003.

The validity of this criteria is illustrated by the GPS points that were taken during the surveys 2000-2003 where 70% of the fields were located at less than 2.5 km distance from a village. The locations of the opium poppy fields were further analyzed with the help of a land use map of 2003 (source: the Government of the Lao PDR's National Geographic Department). When calculating the distance of the opium poppy fields to the nearest agricultural areas in the map it becomes clear that the expansion of the opium poppy cultivation takes place from the existing agricultural plots, since the new fields are mostly found in the neighbourhood of these areas.

Figure 10: Distance from opium poppy fields to agricultural area

[twice the size]

Distance from opium poppy field to the nearest agricultural area (m)

The buffer calculation was performed in a Geographic Information System and resulted in two risk stratums. The resulting stratums are:

- Stratum 1. Areas with high risk of opium poppy cultivation, close to a poppy growing village, altitude above 800 meters and with slopes greater than 10%.

- Stratum 2. Areas with medium risk of opium poppy cultivation. The areas are not close to any opium poppy-growing village but the topographical conditions (altitude above 800 meters and with slopes greater than 10%) are favourable for opium poppy growing.

The final sampling frame consisted of 40,464 km2 distributed in 3,638 grids. The type of sampling method used to estimate the area under opium poppy cultivation corresponds to a Stratified Area Sampling Frame approach. This technique is often used in agricultural and crops surveys. The methodology starts by dividing the target area into mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subgroups or strata. Subsequently, separate samples are then selected from each stratum.

3.4 Sample size

An imperative consideration in the determination of the sample size for a survey is the quality of the data that will be collected. On the other hand, financial resources are serious constraints limiting the scope of the survey. Compromising both conditions, the resulting sample size was calculated as a function of the costs associated to the helicopter flying time and the precision.

The budget available limited the number of flying hours up to the maximum of 33 hours. Therefore, in order to estimate the number of potential selected segments, it was necessary to investigate the helicopter characteristics. The helicopter used for the survey was a "Squirrel" helicopter; this type of helicopter is used mostly for rescue, aeromedical, survey and military roles. The Squirrel has a maximum cruise speed of 220 kph powered by a single jet engine, it can accommodate up to four passengers and it can carry loads of up to 750 kg.

To determine the maximum number of sample segments, a compromise between a sampling ration of 5% of the total potential area and the maximum total of segments has been taken. The total number of segments is derived from the following formulae:

[twice the size]

Where: TEDWs = Total expected surveillance distance travelled within segments
ESWs= Total expected Helicopter speed within segments
MaxDBS, MinDBs = Maximum and Minimum expected distance between segments
ESBs= Total expected helicopter speed between segments
Btso = Buffer time to stopovers

And, Where:

Potential Land = Total potential land for opium poppy cultivation in Laos
or
40,463X0.05=2,023, or in terms of segments equals to 80 grids.

Finally,
or n =Min (65,80)

The sample allocation used for this survey is optimum allocation. Optimum allocation distributes the sample proportionally using the opium poppy area standard deviation on each grid.

The sample of 25km2-grids was systematically selected using probability proportional to size (PPS) approach. PPS sampling is a technique that employs auxiliary data to yield dramatic increases in the precision of survey estimates, particularly if the measures of size are accurate and the variables of interest are correlated with the size of the unit.

In this survey, the variable used was the size of the potential land area for opium poppy cultivation. It is the methodology of choice for sampling areas for most crop estimation surveys. PPS sampling yields unequal probabilities of selection for primary sampling areas. Essentially, the measure of size of the primary sampling areas determines its probability of selection.

Opium poppy plants at an early stage of growth [twice the size]

3.5 Estimation procedure

The estimation of the area under opium poppy cultivation was based on the information collected during the helicopter survey. The expansion area for the aerial research was limited to the sampling frame and does not consider opium poppy fields outside this domain.

Ratio estimation formulae were used to estimate the extent of the opium poppy cultivation at the stratum level using the equations described below.

a. Average proportion of opium poppy cultivation per stratum:

[twice the size]

b. Average proportion of Opium cultivation in Northern Laos. or

Wh= relative weight for each stratum

c. Unbiased estimate of the variance of the proportion of opium poppy cultivation in Northern Laos:

[twice the size]

The second term on the right represents the reduction due to the finite population correction[6].

6 Cochran, W.G.; Sampling techniques, Third edition; Wiley Eds. 1977.

The results for the two strata were refined by the bootstrap method[7]. Bootstrapping is recommended[8] for cases when the sample observations have different sizes, which was the case of the northern provinces of Laos, where the potential land suitable for opium poppy cultivation within the selected grids was very different from one grid to another. The bootstrap method does not have a significance influence on the mean estimation. However, the main reason for using bootstrap is to calculate the standard error of the estimates.

7 Resampling Stats. Stand alone Version 5.0 with 100,000 iterations.

8 Resampling methods, a practical guide to data analysis; Good, P. Birkhauser 2006.

Bootstrapping consist of sampling with replacement from the original sample thousands of times.

The collection of 65 selected grids constitutes the original sample. After performing each iteration, a mean value is estimated and scored. At the last stage, a distribution of means can be observed, producing a mean estimate and a confidence interval for the mean.

Yield survey

Practical field procedures used to collect data (number, height and diameter of opium poppy capsules) to estimate opium yield are based on the "Guidelines for Yield Assessment of Opium Gum and Coca Leaf From Brief Field Visits" prepared by UNODC. The guidelines provide for practical field procedures and for options to calculate yield from capsule volume using a linear correlation between capsule volume per one square meter (cm3/m2) and oven dry gum yield (kg/ha)

During helicopter survey, the team could land in two separate areas were several opium poppy fields under harvest were monitored. Size of fields, density and some capsules data were collected.

To complement this, a team of ground surveyors was sent to Phongsaly province to survey additional 35 fields identified during the helicopter survey. Out of 35 fields, yield data could only be collected in 22 fields, since other fields were either eradicated or already harvested at the time of visit. Those data alone were consequently not sufficient to get a valid estimate for 2006. Instead it was decided to use the average of the last three years.